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Florent Marcellesi
change is affecting their land, the surroundings in which they dwell, the beaches, agriculture,
the economy and, ultimately, their own well-being. Climate change is known to provoke actual
and deep transformations in the majority of phenomena on which life depends: temperatures,
precipitation, hydrology, amongst others. Phenomena that then radically affect human activities
and thus, the economy, which itself depends on ecosystems for its sustainable endurance and
maintenance.
What would happen if Andalusia ceased producing olive oil? Can you imagine a Valencia
without oranges? Or a wine-less La Rioja? All these crops are today at risk because of global
warming, which in a few decades will cause their prime production area to shift to central and
northern Europe.What will then happen to culture and employment in these regions?
To find out more on the impacts of climate change, we will progress through two stages. Firstly,
we will concentrate on our recent past and introduce the effects of global warming since 1950
until now. We will observe the changes that have already occurred during this period and, in
particular, those changes that many of our elders have experienced and felt first-hand. As the
author of the study notes, “climate change is not just only scientific fact and mathematical
models; it is a process that has left its mark on the lives of many people who have seen how
the landscapes of their childhood have been completely transformed.” From this personal
perspective, climate change is connected emotionally to the experience of our mothers, fathers,
grandmothers and grandfathers.
Secondly, we will glance towards the future, with 2050 on the horizon: chosen in international
climate change negotiations to be the year for achieving a world without carbon emissions.This
projection into the future is an invitation to imagine what awaits us if temperatures rise 2°C or
4°C. Our well-being, independence and opportunities will be increasingly conditional on the
changes of the climate because it is obviously not the same to live in a Mediterranean climate
as it is in a semi-arid one. Nor is it the same to enjoy life under a stable and predictable climate
as it is under one permeated with uncertainty.
In this respect, international scientists have drawn a clear line in the sand. Whereas below an
average temperature rise of 2°C still allows us to broadly predict the impacts of climate change,
beyond that threshold, we enter unknown and increasingly dangerous territory. Ecosystems do
not respond in proportion to the increase in temperatures, and above certain critical limits (2°C,
in this case), the changes become abrupt and irreversible. The precipice between order and
chaos, a dignified life and an uncertain life, is called 2°C.
Through this double perspective, both retrospective and prospective, this study is an invitation
to shorten the emotional distance that we maintain with climate change. It is an invitation to
see climate change as it truly is: a palpable reality for those walking, and yet to walk, on Earth.
It is also an invitation to not become mired in lamentations: we are fellow participants in this
situation, for which we are responsible; however, without any doubt, the most important thing
is that we are also part of the solution.
For this reason, this study constitutes part of a much wider campaign by the European Greens
as the December 2015 Climate Change Summit, COP21 in Paris, approaches. The campaign is